The 100-year legacy of Japan's Great Kanto Earthquake

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The Great Kanto Earthquake in Japan in September 100 years ago claimed around 105 000 lives, the largest loss of life from any earthquake in Japan in recorded history. 

Key takeaways of this publication are: 

  •  The Great Kanto Earthquake is still Japan's worst natural disaster, with more than 100 000 lives lost and economic losses of close to a third of its GDP in 1923. 
  •  Despite extraordinary improvement in the structural resilience of buildings, seismic risk is still extremely high in Japan. 
  •  Today, the high concentration of population and wealth in the Tokyo region mean a serious quake could cause insured losses of an estimated USD 130-150bn. 
  •  This would be the highest ever loss globally from one event.
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Facts about the earthquake

The Great Kanto Earthquake happened in 1923, more than 100 years ago

  • Magnitude: Mw 7.9 
  • Economic loss: 30% of Japan’s 1923 GDP
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Japan – The earthquake-prone nation

Since 1950, Japan experienced...

  • 4 large earthquake events (Mw >8)
  • 148 mid-sized earthquake events (Mw 5–7.4)
  • 6% probability of a repeat Mw 7.9 quake in Tokyo within 30 years

Tohoku Earthquake

  • Magnitude: Mw 9 
  • Economic losses: >USD 280 billion (adjusted for inflation)
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Mitigating risks by enhancing infrastructure

Continuous updates to increase seismic resistance

  • Enforcing stringent building codes and disaster mitigation measures
  • Seawall heights increased post 2011
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The Kanto region today

Actual situation

  • Population: 39 million (4x of 1920) 
  • GDP contribution: 39.3% (as of 2019) of Japan

If a similar earthquake event were to happen today, the impact would be...

  • Death toll: 6000 
  • Property damage: >190 000 properties 
  • Economic loss: JPY 95.3 trillion (USD 940 billion today) 
  • Estimated insured loss: JPY 13.3–15.2 trillion (USD 130–150 billion) 
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Economics Insights Publication The 100-year legacy of Japan's Great Kanto Earthquake

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