Aviation insurance: opportunities ahead from flying greener

Times are challenging for aviation insurers as airlines grapple with the fallout from war in Ukraine, directly after the unprecedented shock of COVID-19. However, air traffic is rebounding strongly, and passenger and cargo numbers are expected to grow over the long term. As airlines invest in greener and safer new aircraft, we see growing opportunities for the insurance industry.

• Despite the challenges of the war in Ukraine and the pandemic, we see a promising outlook for aviation insurance. We estimate premium growth of 4-5% per year to 2030.
• Both air cargo and air passenger traffic have robust long-term prospects. The commercial fleet is forecast to double in size between 2019 and 2040, to around 50 000 aircraft, creating strong growth in exposure to insurance.
• The drive towards decarbonisation will create long-term opportunities for aviation insurers.