Europe's new COVID-19 wave: déjà-vu, but different
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Another winter resurgence in COVID-19 cases and restrictions is enveloping Europe.
The key takeaways from this Economic Insights are:
- Europe is again at the epicentre of the pandemic. This time, however, we expect the economic fallout will be less severe than in previous waves.
- We keep our forecasts for euro area real GDP growth unchanged at 5.0% for 2021 and 4.1% for 2022, below consensus.
- The Omicron variant has increased uncertainty globally, and the risks to the growth outlook are skewed to the downside.
- Today there is greater immunity to the virus across the euro area and the economy has adapted to better live with the virus.
- To this end, we believe consumers and businesses will prove more resilient to any further tightening of restrictions than before.