Climate change – an evolving threat to international security

Beyond the physical risks posed by climate-change induced variations in the patterns of severe weather and other natural peril events, the impacts of warming temperatures are manifold. They include, for example, the contribution of changing weather patterns in driving global food insecurity to record levels. In 2022, a quarter of a billion people in 58 countries faced acute food insecurity, and 35 million people faced starvation due to conflicts and an intensification of severe weather events.¹ At the same time, the world faces a fresh water crisis, experts say, with demand for fresh water forecast to exceed supply by 40% by 2030.² Drivers of the anticipated water shortages include misuse and pollution of water resources, and changes to the global hydrologic cycle on account of climate change.

Climate change can also lead to loss of agricultural output, impacting rural household livelihoods and prompting mass migration. The UN estimates that by 2050, climate change could force 216 million people in six regions to move within their own countries.³ Seventy percent of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries are also among the most socially and economically fragile.⁴ With severe weather events occurring more frequently, inconsistent precipitation patterns and rising sea levels, countries face increasing risk of civil disorder due to potential food scarcity and higher prices, competition for natural resources and mass migration.

Climate change also has implications for peace and security,⁵ not least as a destabilising factor that has contributed to the growth of extremist organisations.⁶ Water stress serves as an example where extremist organisations leverage water to control supply and provide services to gain followers.⁷ There are also examples when such organisations have offered work opportunities to those with alternatives to earn a living.⁸

Further, several studies indicate an increase in general crime as temperatures rise. For example, one study reports a 22% increase in social media online hate messages across the US when temperatures rise above a 12–21°C window.⁹ This correlation between higher temperatures and hate crime and others could further trigger social tensions within cities and countries.

In a different part of the world, melting icebergs in the Arctic Circle is opening up new trade routes and access to new resources. At the same time, however, this is triggering tension between states over influence and control in the region, leading to a growing risk of military escalation.¹⁰

The cascading non-linear effects of climate change are challenging to project over the long term in general, and with respect to security developments.¹¹ Nevertheless, from a security angle, climate change risk assessment is crucial at global and country levels. It is also vital for enterprises as part of business continuity planning. A company needs to review its operations for all potential disruption scenarios that changes in climate may present, beyond the physical risks posed by natural perils themselves.