The four recognisable patterns of excess mortality among countries
Early peak, quick run-off
In countries such as the US, Belgium and Italy, excess mortality peaked early in 2020–21, with a quick run-off by 2023. The US is the most prominent example of this, with excess mortality hitting 20% in 2021, reducing to single digits by 2023. The peaks for Belgium and Italy were not so high but followed a similar trajectory and reported 0% excess mortality in 2023.
Early peak, slow run-off
The UK, Netherlands and France all reported relatively flat ~10% excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, with prolonged waves of COVID-19. This led to a slower decline in to 2023.
Late peak, quick run-off
Norway, Denmark and Australia reported no or negative excess mortality until 2022, likely as a consequence of more stringent lockdowns, a vaccinated population and other societal actions. All countries reported a peak in 2022, followed by a sharp decline to ~0% in 2023. These countries typify the late COVID-19 wave experience.
Late peak, slow run-off
Canada and Austria experienced prolonged COVID-19 waves, though 2020 and 2021, with a smaller peak by 2022. This led to a slower runoff throughout the pandemic. Conversely, Finland, and Japan (not shown), started out by reporting 0% excess in 2020, with an incremental increase until peaking in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The run-off followed the same pattern as Canada and Austria in 2023, where all countries experienced elevated excess mortality in 2023. This pattern is more speculative, but given that these countries peaked late and started from a worse position, we reasonably expect them to run off slowly.
Note: 2023 data for some countries is still provisional.
Source: Human Mortality Database; analysed and reproduced by Swiss Re Institute