The evolution of a pandemic in 6 charts
After the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on 11 March 2020, the planet's nearly 8 billion people underwent a crash course in fighting a disease that nobody had ever heard of before the final days of 2019.
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We learned first-hand how a global health emergency has to do with much more than just health. It disrupted everything, from travel to commerce to how we work. It left nothing untouched, as our vocabulary underwent a forced expansion, adding words like "social distancing," "herd immunity," "R number" and "Long-COVID." With variants, we even got a refresher in the Greek alphabet.
These six charts help visualize the evolution of the pandemic – and offer a glimpse of how the re/insurance industry continues to act as a shock absorber for society in times of crisis.
The tragedy of COVID-19 impacted hard-won gains in life expectancy
The first COVID-19 death was recorded in China in early January 2020. By mid-April, global fatalities surpassed the 100,000 mark. COVID-19 deaths are nearing 6 million globally in 2022, as some nations continue to experience excess mortality, or deaths above expected levels. For now, COVID-19 now trails only cancer and heart disease in the United States as a top cause of death as it contributed to an18-month reduction in life expectancy in 2020. Groups including Hispanic and African-American people were impacted disproportionately, raising tough questions about lingering inequality. In Europe, the life expectancy drop was six months, the most since World War II.
Life insurance payments have risen the most since the Spanish influenza pandemic a century ago
From 2020, the pandemic rolled over the planet in waves, shifting from Asia to Europe and the Americas as the disease's spread defied national borders. Brief respites during the northern hemisphere's summer months were followed by a resurgence as weather turned colder, people went indoors, and virus variants emerged to change the disease's behavior. In the United States, life insurers in 2020 saw the largest year-on-year increase in payouts since the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic, according to the American Council of Life Insurers. Reinsurers also played a significant role, demonstrating again the industry's importance as a backstop when turmoil hits.
Vaccines arrived in record time, but challenges in uptake, distribution persist
When makers of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine candidates released data from their clinical trials in November 2020 showing efficacy of more than 90%, their swift success surprised even pharmaceutical industry veterans who normally face far longer drug development timelines. Suddenly, the world was hopeful that an end to the pandemic was within reach. Nonetheless, as rollouts of shots began to slow infections, challenges persisted: Resistance to vaccination emerged even in markets where shots were widely available, while distribution difficulties in developing nations underscored the divide between the global rich and poor, threatening to prolong the pandemic.
As COVID-19 shut down life as we know it, health care for other conditions suffered
As COVID-19 filled intensive care units, hospitals responded by suspending routine procedures as they sought to manage stretched capacity. Many people, fearful that venturing out could expose them to infection, also avoided going to the doctor. Consequently, medical care even for conditions not directly linked to SARS-CoV-2 suffered. Cancer screening dropped at alarming rates, delaying diagnoses. And the pandemic's toll on mental health is well-documented, too, not only for those who experienced acute infection but also people suffering from the strain of COVID-19 lockdowns.
The emergence of variants added to the uncertainty of the pandemic
Early on in the crisis, some scientists briefly concluded SARS-CoV-2 was relatively stable, in comparison with fast-mutating influenza viruses that require vaccines to be updated every year. The optimism didn't last, however, as significant COVID-19 variants emerged to influence the pandemic's course. Each variant would leave its mark, from the Alpha variant documented first in Britain, the Beta variant seen widely in South Africa, and Delta, which hit India and elsewhere starting in October 2020. Mixed signals from the latest variant, Omicron, provide reason for caution and hope: While more infectious, Omicron appears to cause less-severe disease. After a massive surge in infections, data shows it is now on the wane. Risks remain, however, for new variants.
Insurance demand likely to top historical growth rates in 2022 and 2023
The COVID-19 pandemic has boosted people's awareness of the importance of protecting themselves from risk, a phenomenon that economists say will help support near-term demand for insurance. While SARS-CoV-2 has significantly impacted financial results for two years, Swiss Re anticipates the global insurance market to recover more swiftly than it did after the financial crisis of a decade ago. Above-trend growth is expected in 2022 and 2023, with demand rising for life and non-life products. Moreover, profitability is seen recovering as rising vaccination rates reduce mortality, COVID-19 nears an endemic state, and the world learns to live alongside a new virus.
