How to better prepare for the next pandemic

A WHO panel examining the global response to COVID-19 has concluded that the pandemic should not have caught the world unaware.¹ Population growth, urbanisation, more human intervention into wildlife and biodiversity, climate change and other factors are all conducive to large infectious disease outbreaks.² Beyond COVID-19, major outbreaks this century have included SARS, influenza, Ebola and Zika. So, are we ready for the inevitable next pandemic?

The COVID-19 outbreak was followed by a swift response by the life sciences industry and remarkable collaboration across research groups to produce urgent scientific insights. The virus was sequenced within days of discovery; tests were available within a week, and treatments after just months; and several vaccines were available within a year.

Reflecting on this experience, among the recommendations of a UK government-sponsored report to the G7 to prepare for future pandemics are establishing ready availability of diagnostics services; developing prototype antiviral therapeutics, including antibody therapies applicable to the kinds of pathogens that could cause pandemics; and investing in modernising vaccine technology and associated R&D.³

The world will continue to grapple with the negative effects of the pandemic for a while yet, including the hit to general healthcare and people’s mental health, and the lingering impact of those afflicted by long-COVID.⁴ To boost resilience against future pandemics, there needs to be renewed focus on disease and population monitoring, prevention, improving early-care services and tackling other already existing and long-standing healthcare system challenges. Rebuilding trust in doctors, healthcare and institutions is also essential.⁵ In this context, building back better means designing services around people and their needs. Healthcare professionals need to be equipped with new skills, especially around digital health, to best respond to patients’ needs.

Finally, a truly global cooperative approach would improve preparedness for the next pandemic. This includes information, expertise and experience sharing, and coordination on response measures.

Swiss Re data show that the global health protection gap has widened during the COVID-19 era.⁶ The impact of the pandemic on households will vary depending on the quality of national healthcare systems and success of containment policies. Poorer countries face a two-fold challenge: COVID-19 has exposed large shortages of intensive care beds, and the task is to scale up supply on very limited budgets.⁷ At the same time, these countries need to protect COVID-19 patients from what can be very large healthcare costs. In low-income countries, out-of-pocket expenditure typically represents more than 40% of household healthcare spending, compared with only 24% in advanced markets.⁸ This leaves households vulnerable to financial stress. Affordable health insurance can play a central role in reducing this financial risk and thereby make individuals and households more resilient.

Consumer surveys indicate that the pandemic experience has led to increased risk awareness and interest of buying insurance. But affordability remains an issue. Technology and data can improve underwriting of pandemic-related and other healthcare risks. This is key in making insurance products more affordable and efficient. At the same time, digitisation improves access to cover. Social media and mobile phones allow more people, including the most remote and/or those on low incomes, to buy insurance. This is an important step in closing the health protection gap.