Screening Impact on Cancer Incidence in China: Past, Present and Future
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Further Information
With thanks to
Dr Ping Ji, Sergio Lopez Jimenez, Yunjie Lai, Dokkie Nel, Philip Niu, Dr Prachi Patkee, Eva Richardson, Dr Adam Strange, Marshall Wang, David Zhang.
Executive summary
Screening can strongly drive cancer CI claims. Swiss Re’s analysis combines consumer survey data with medical evidence to assess screening's impact on cancer trends in China. Thyroid cancer rates could be stabilising, likely due to high screening uptake, overdiagnosis awareness and reclassification of early cancer as minor CI. CT use may explain a substantial portion of rising lung cancer incidence. Future screening may raise detection of early-stage prostate cancer, while accelerating short-term detection of colorectal cancer and reducing long-term colorectal cancer claims.
Key messages
- Thyroid cancer claims, previously on the rise, could be stabilising. This likely reflects high uptake of previous screening and the definition change reducing screening incentives.
- Lung cancer incidence is rising, especially in young women, largely driven by CT scans.
- In the future, screening developments may boost detection of early-stage prostate cancer, while accelerating short-term detection and reducing long-term colorectal cancer claims.